The by-election results in Quebec are in keeping with that which I predicted last January, (please see Toronto Star follows True North lead below) including the election of a New Democrat. It should be clear even to Michael Ignatieff that the struggle to keep Quebec in Canada ended even before he left Harvard to be anointed as Canada’s prime minister.
The pur laine element in the failing separatist movement had to settle for Ève-Mary Thai Lac to keep their cause in the running. She beat her Conservative rival with a comfortable margin.
It was no surprise that Roberval Mayor Denis Lebel took the BQ riding of Roberval-Lac St. Jean for the Conservatives. The electorate voted for security (jobs) and concluded a sitting member of the government would be their best bet.
While the separatists sulk and smile bravely the Tories and New Democrats apparently have cause for joy. However, by-elections are notorious for misrepresenting the mood of the electorate as exercised in following federal elections.
Afghanistan was not a factor in this round but is certain to be as the bodies continue to return. In Outremont, not to cast a shadow on the New Democrat win, we can be sure that the well-heeled voters hadn’t suddenly been converted to social democracy. Theirs was a vengeance vote and casting ballots for a provincial Liberal in NDP clothing was an easy alternative to voting Tory.
The hostilities, about which I’ll write later, will shake down and Outremont will likely return to its traditional place as a safe place for Liberals.
Meanwhile, the Liberals who are sharpening their long knives in the backrooms of the party throughout Canada should think carefully before disposing of their leader Stéphan Dion. Their obvious choice is Michael Ignatieff, a man whose lack of political judgment is fast becoming legendary. He may have wings as an academic, he may be a better stage performer, but he has well proven that he lacks political depth.
The best bet for the Liberals is to stay with Dion and do their best to polish their party with him as leader. A rush to change leadership now would be not only unseemly but also downright foolish. To bet on Ignatieff would only make things worse — whole lot worse.
Looking forward
Carl Dow
Editor and Publisher
True North Perspective
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