By Alain Pellerin, Colonel (ret’d)
Executive Direcor
Conference of Defence Associations
Great attention is being paid by some to the “exit strategy” that Canada should have to end its mission in Afghanistan. Some commentators bemoan the lack of a clear strategy for the Canadian mission. Once again, in anticipation of regular government briefings starting in September (hopefully those briefings will be for attribution), the CDA would like to draw your attention to relevant media and analysis pieces.
In a piece for the Toronto Star (see link below), Rudyard Griffiths writes that there is a need to depoliticize the debate over the future of Canada’s mission in Afghanistan and have an “unemotional, non-political-point-scoring debate about defining success in Afghanistan and how and when we should be drawing down our troops and our record levels of foreign assistance.” He promotes a call for a Canadian Afghanistan Study Group, similar to the American Iraq Study Group, to fulfill this need. In a piece for the Toronto Star (see link below), Mark Abley writes that there is a need for “clarity of purpose” for the mission in Afghanistan, and criticizes the unhelpfulness of the current political debate.
In order to provide a backgrounder to the conditions that would entail success in Afghanistan, the CDA would like to draw your attention to a piece by General (ret’d) Paul Manson titled “A Rational Exit Strategy for Afghanistan.” In this piece the author outlines tangible benchmarks for the success of the Canadian mission in Afghanistan.
In a piece for the Ottawa Citizen (see link below), Jack Aubry reports that Canadian support for the military mission in Afghanistan remains “surprisingly stable, including in Quebec,” even after the deaths of three soldiers from that province in the past weeks. The quoted Ipsos-Reid poll (see link below) notes a rise in support in Quebec from 30% to 35%. In the National Post (see link below), Tom Blackwell reports that polling data accumulated over the past year and a half indicates that “Canadians may be more likely to approve of the historic military mission [in Afghanistan] when they are told more about it,” because of what pollsters ask people appear to have “almost as much impact on opinion as what is happening in Afghanistan itself.” For instance the following question: "Would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose . Canada's military operations in Afghanistan such as helping to secure the environment for the civilian population through activities that include combat" received a 63% support level in the Sep-March Ipsos-Reid polls.
The battle for public opinion is based on successes on the ground, and the CDA would like to draw your attention to some recent articles on the training of the Afghan National Army.
In the Ottawa Citizen (see link below), Andrew Mayeda highlights the operational activities of the Afghan National Army and the difficulties faced by its Canadian trainers in making the new force suitable to take over from the CF. In the Toronto Star (see link below), Rosie DiManno describes the instability caused in areas of Afghanistan where Canadian troops prematurely handed over control to Afghan troops. She warns against the crushing of “hard-won military successes . . . on the anvil of domestic politics back home” (for a quick handover to Afghan forces) and against putting too much faith in handing over security concerns to Afghan forces.
In La Presse (see link below), Hugo Meunier and Martin Tremblay conduct an on-the-ground assessment of the training and prospects of the Afghan National Army. The authors interview both Afghan soldiers and their Canadian trainers, exploring the successes and challenges faced in their efforts.
The mission in Afghanistan is, as mentioned several times before, dependent upon events in its neighbour, Pakistan. Domestic politics and cross-border ethnic relations will have much influence on peace and development in Afghanistan. In a recent edition of the Economist, several articles (see links below) conduct an analysis of the safe haven provided for Al Qaida in the regions between the two countries and analyze Pakistani President Musharraf’s various options for staying in power. An article in the Asia Times (see link below) by Syed Saleem Shahzad examines the “process of reconciliation with the Taliban” in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the prospects of smaller peace jirgas that will involve the Taliban. Most interestingly, the author explores the prospects for Western success if the coalition adopts a more accepting posture towards the Taliban and distinguishes it from Al Qaida.
The CDA advocates a fuller understanding of the Afghan mission in order to promote an informed debate about Canada’s legitimate national security and defence interests stemming from that country. It advocates a greater focus on the details of the mission instead of on broad and general brushstrokes that are often painted by opinion-makers on all sides.
Links:
Rudyard Griffiths. “Let’s define ‘success’ in Afghanistan.” Toronto Star, 26 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/249666
Mark Abley. “At war for the wrong reasons?” Toronto Star, 28 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/250356
Paul Manson. “A Rational Exit Strategy for Afghanistan.” CDA Commentary, 2006. Available online at: http://www.cda-cdai.ca/CDA_Commentary/Manson_Afghanistan_Exit_Strategy.pdf
Jack Aubry. “Support for Afghan war effort stable, poll reveals.” Ottawa Citizen, 25 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=b601fc2f-a6ba-4edf-81ec-9af3af5c77f5
Ipsos News Center. “As Quebec Regiment Suffers Losses In Afghanistan, Support In Quebec Receives A Boost.” 25 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3615
Tom Blackwell. “Support for mission relatively stable: polls.” National Post, 24 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=a26fa1a8-866d-4c2c-8042-f8013c8f4f80&k=62450
Andrew Mayeda. “Military focuses on handover to Afghans.” Ottawa Citizen, 27 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=1191ff58-27b6-4211-857f-6337c45c5268
Hugo Meunier and Martin Tremblay. “L'école de la guerre.” La Presse, 27 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070827/CPACTUALITES/708270420/5025/CPDMINUTE
Economist. “Who is hunting whom?” 16 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9653035
Economist. “The general in his labyrinth.” 16 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9657054
Economist. “Looking for peace on troubled borders.” 16 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9657213
Syed Saleem Shahzad. “Talks with the Taliban gain ground.” Asia Times. Available online at: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IH24Df01.html
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